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Becoming a UFC champion is hard.
Even getting into the UFC is hard, but to beat up enough of the toughest people on Earth to get to the top of the mountain is on a whole other level.
Short-notice replacements can wreak havoc on contenders, and champions can be injured or simply abstain from fighting for a while; before you know it, someone you had never heard of last year is a world champion.
With that said, that's what this exercise is all about: trying to predict who will hold UFC gold a year down the line.